WEBER COMMERCIAL MARKET WATCH

The Projects Are Out There. The Key Is Knowing Where to Look.

July’s construction indicators point to continued pressure in the near term, but a growing pipeline could create meaningful opportunities for independent flooring dealers and commercial contractors.

Projects Are Taking Longer to Move Forward

The latest market data delivers a mixed but important message: projects are still being discussed and planned, but many are taking longer to become signed contracts and active jobs.

The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index fell from 47.3 in June to 46.6 in July. Any score below 50 indicates declining billings at architecture firms, which can signal fewer projects advancing toward construction. The downturn has now lasted nearly three and a half years, making it the longest period of declining business conditions in the index’s history.

Conditions remained soft across every region and project category. The South continued to outperform the rest of the country with a score of 48.7, followed by the West at 47.8, the Midwest at 46.7, and the Northeast at 44.8.

What This Means for Flooring Businesses

For independent flooring dealers and commercial contractors, this softness may appear as delayed projects, longer bidding cycles, greater competition, and customers taking more time to make decisions.

There is still demand in the market. Project inquiries remained in positive territory at 52.6, indicating that clients continue to explore new work. However, the design contracts index fell to 47.2, showing that many of those conversations have not yet become signed projects.

The opportunity has not disappeared. It is simply taking longer to move through the pipeline. That makes disciplined follow-up and strong relationships with architects, designers, general contractors, property managers, and developers increasingly important.

Where Opportunity Is Building

The longer-term outlook offers more encouragement. The Dodge Momentum Index rose 6.9% in July, with commercial planning increasing 4.1% and institutional planning climbing 13.1%. Compared with July 2025, the overall index was up 11.7%.

Data centers continue to drive much of the commercial increase. Without them, commercial planning would have been down 16.2% from the previous year. Institutional growth, however, was more widespread.

Education, healthcare, recreation, religious, and public-building projects all gained momentum in July. These sectors can represent significant flooring opportunities, particularly for contractors with the certifications, installation capabilities, product knowledge, and supplier relationships needed to compete for specialized work.

Because the Dodge Momentum Index typically leads nonresidential construction spending by 12 to 18 months, today’s planning growth could begin producing more active opportunities in late 2027.

Position Your Business Now

The message for members is clear: protect today’s business while preparing for tomorrow’s projects.

Stay close to your local pipeline, follow projects early, and remain visible to the people making product and specification decisions. Dealers serving commercial, multifamily, and builder markets should also consider where their capabilities could translate into the institutional sectors now showing stronger planning activity.

The market remains challenging, but the planning data shows that work is developing beneath the surface. The businesses that identify those opportunities early and remain engaged throughout the planning process will be best positioned when those projects begin moving forward.

Sources: AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index: July 2026 and Dodge Construction Network Momentum Index: July 2026.